Injury bug finally gets ‘em all, but all is not lost
For such a widespread terrorist, it took the injury bug until the first inning of game 105 of the 2010 season to finally get every regular-day Phillie. We know well the tales of its attacks on Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, Carlos Ruiz and Shane Victorino, all of whom have spent time on the disabled list. Its small jab on Jayson Werth’s hip in the home opener was overshadowed by its vicious devouring of Jimmy Rollins right calf. Last night it grabbed Raul Ibanez’s wrist as he tried to make a diving catch. He sat out today’s series finale in Washington. That left Ryan Howard, who sat out Saturday night’s game amidst a slump. It was the first time all year he missed a game. His return to the lineup lasted less than half an inning before rolling his ankle trying to get back to second base. And unlike Werth’s and Ibanez’s injuries, you have the feeling Big Brown might not be back when the Phillies take the field in Miami Tuesday night.
This must be payback for all the good feelings Phillies fans have had the past couple of years. Add to the regulars injuries to almost every pitcher in red pinstripes. The Phillies just can’t seem to catch a break. Of course, despite their struggles, including losing two of three to the woeful, Strasburg-less Nats, the Phillies somehow sit just 2.5 games behind the NL East-leading Braves.
What’s interesting is that the two teams are in reversed roles from where they were nearly a decade ago. Back in 2001 the Braves were the perennial winners. The Phillies were the surprise team of up-and-comers who had a division lead well into the summer. But veteran experience down the stretch won out, as Larry Bowa’s Phillies faded away. Now it’s the Braves playing above their heads into August while showing signs of fatigue and not having been there before. Can the Phillies, who have overcome much bigger deficits with many fewer games to play reel in their rivals and win a fourth straight division title? Health of the regulars will be a key factor.
Warning to pitchers: Don’t eat what Kyle’s serving
A word of advice for Roy Oswalt, Dan Haren or any other starting pitcher the Phillies may acquire before the trading deadline: Don’t eat anything Kyle Kendrick tries to feed you. OK, Kendrick may not be a surreptitious poisoner, but bad things seem to happen to fellow starters every time Kendrick looks to lose his spot in the rotation.
Consider the facts: In spring training this year, it was clear Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ would be the top four starters. When Jamie Moyer beat out Kendrick for the final sport, the youngster looked like he was headed to the minors or the bullpen. But when the Phillies put Blanton on the 15-day DL the day before the season opener, a move greatly overshadowed by the Eagles trading Donovan McNabb that night to the Redskins, Kendrick experienced an Easter Sunday resurrection. Instead of a demotion, he would be plugged into the third spot in the rotation, where he would last just four innings giving up five runs in a no-decision in a Phillies loss to the Nats.
So what would happen to Kendrick when Blanton came off the DL? A ticket to Lehigh Valley, or a trip to the ‘pen? The question became a moot point, because on April 22, Happ landed on the DL, virtually guaranteeing Kendrick, struggling at the time, would keep a spot in the rotation.
Kendrick has pitched much better since April, but a blasting by the Cardinals last week finally printed that bus ticket to the bush leagues the following day. That night Jamie Moyer lasted just an inning before his elbow couldn’t go any more. And so Kendrick’s trip to meet the IronPigs on the Indianapolis ended with a trip home to Philadelphia with the big club.
Officially he spent four days in the minors, but spent only about a day with the AAA affiliate. Instead, a day before Happ returns from the DL, Kendrick was recalled from Lehigh Valley, having never stepped in Coca-Cola Field this season, let alone this week, and outdueled NL Cy Young Award front-runner Ubaldo Jimenez in a 10-2 throttling of the Rockies.
Kendrick is 6-4 with a 4.60 ERA this season. He likely has a spot in the rotation for the rest of the season with Moyer out. Not bad for a guy who very likely would have and even should have started the season in the minors.
Old King Cole?
After last year the beginning of this year, I didn’t think it would be possible for me to ever feel bad for Cole Hamels. But I do, because he has been so very, very good while the Phillies have been so very, very bad. The man is 2-4 in his last 10 starts, but he has a 2.98 ERA. In only two of those games, a June 1, rain-shortened, two-out, three-run loss in Atlanta, and a June 26 loss to the Blue Jays, did he not have a quality start. Since that game against the Blue Jays, Hamels is 1-1 with a 1.72 ERA in five starts. That includes three no-decisions, in which he has an ERA of 1.63. How is that right?
The offensive struggles of the Phillies are ridiculous. The Phillies have score more than four runs just six times in July and are 2-4 in those games. You can’t blame it all on Chase Utley being out. Other guys need to step up whether he’s there or not. And they really need to start doing it when Hamels is on the hill.
In other news, the injury report is not good for Jamie Moyer. His left arm injury could require Tommy John surgery. Would he really go through the procedure and the rehab? Would the Phillies or anyone pay him with so many ifs? If it is the end of the road for Jamie, let’s go win another ring for him, huh, guys?
Grading the Phillies at the break
I know, it’s a tired tradition, but I, too, will join the cast of thousands who apply grades to a sports team at the All-Star Break. Let’s just get to it.
Pitchers
- Roy Halladay: A; Is there really anything to say about the biggest off-season acquisition in baseball? The guy threw a perfect game. He has 10 wins, but should have at least a couple more had it not been for the offense taking a month off or almost being the victim of a perfect game by a guy making his third Major League start. Halladay has started 19 games and has walked 19 batters. His ERA is 2.19 pitching at CBP. He leads the league in innings pitched (148.0) and complete games (7). ‘Nuff said.
- Cole Hamels: B+; 7-7 isn’t great, but it’s better than 5-5 at this point last year, especially when you factor in Hamels’s 3.78 ERA. It was about a run higher last year at the break. He’s healthy. His head is in the game. He’s had his ups and downs. He needs to walk fewer guys. But the bottom line is this version of Hamel is looking more like the guy mid-way through 2008, and that guy was money down the stretch. I predict he will be perhaps the most important started for the Phillies in the second half. As Hamels goes, so go the Phillies. Just watch.
- Jamie Moyer: A-; Easily the biggest positive surprise this season. He has nine wins already and a WHIP only slightly higher than Halladay. Twice this season he has set the Major League record for oldest pitcher to throw a complete game. Did you honestly expect that after the way last season ended, both as far as injury and performance? Me neither.
- Kyle Kendrick: C; This grade is based mainly on inconsistency. There have been times when Kendrick has looked great. Other times he has looked terrible. But he has made the most of his chance to be in the rotation and not at Lehigh Valley. I’d like to see him sitting next to Halladay in the dugout as much as possible. Perhaps he can get better by osmosis if nothing else.
- Joe Blanton: D; Could there be a bigger disappointment on the mound than the usually solid Blanton? It seems like he always pitches one inning too many and gets lit up. I know he’s been hurt, but an ERA of 6.41 is why fans and reporters keep asking Ruben Amaro about Pedro Martinez.
- J.A. Happ: Incomplete. Boy, we were hoping for a big season from him. To be fair, he does have a 1.000 winning percentage and an ERA of 0.00. Of course, he pitched just 10.1 innings in two starts before going on the DL. Let’s hope for a big (and healthy) second half.
- Bullpen: B-; This has to be a group grade, because it seems no one has been healthy long enough this year to earn their own mark. Consider that Antonio Bastardo, Chad Durbin, Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero have all been or are on the DL. Madson and Lidge have been anything but great closers. Danys Baez has been a disappointment. Jose Contreras has been dependable. Other guys (Nelson Figueroa, David Herndon) have stepped up. Here’s how I look at it: Aside from the times the closers (including at times Contreras) have imploded, the bullpen has been steady. The Phillies usually lose because a starter got lit up or the offense did nothing. The bullpen is the least of the big concerns, but the closer role needs to improve.
Catchers
- Carlos Ruiz: B-; This grade would probably be higher if Chooch could stay healthy. He seemed poise for a break-out year. He still calls a great game, including the perfect game that Halladay gave him all the credit for, and is hitting .283 with a team-high .404 OBP. Hopefully his time on the DL will help him stay fresh for another late-season surge.
- Brian Schneider/Paul Hoover/Dane Sardinha: C; None of these guys is going to be a household name, but they’ve played well behind the plate, and Schneider has had some clutch hits.
Infielders
- Ryan Howard: A-; He’s an All-Star and the most consistent hitter this year. He had a goal to hit near .300. At the break, he’s hitting .294 and is tied for the league lead in RBI with 65. All that’s holding him back is consistently being the leader. I don’t think during the team-wide slump that he did enough to be the leader his teammates needed with Jimmy Rollins out. Howard has always been a second-half player. We can only hope that continues. It’s hittin’ season.
- Chase Utley: B; I don’t care what he says, Utley’s been hurt long before the thumb injury. He needs to get healthy for real and not rush back. There’s little doubt he may be the most talented guy on the team, but he may never show his true potential if he’s always banged up. And the way he slumped? Wow. That was bad.
- Placido Polanco: A-; Polly has lived up to all the hype about why the Phillies wanted him. He does so many things at the plate Pedro Feliz couldn’t, and he place a solid third base. Had his elbow not started acting up, he would’ve been the NL’s starter at the hot corner tomorrow night. Instead, he’s on the DL and hoping to come back this weekend.
- Jimmy Rollins: Incomplete; The former MVP has simply been hurt too much. The rust has shown, as his average has dropped to .254. But his leadership is unquestionable. He may not be the prototypical leadoff guy, but he is the spark for this team. If he stays healthy and gets hot as he typically does in the second half, watch out.
- Wilson Valdez/Juan Castro: B-; Offensively, they are a liability, but they are versatile in the field and have filled in admirably for three All-Stars. That earns them higher marks than they might otherwise deserve.
- Greg Dobbs: D; With all the injuries and slumping, he’s gotten some chances. He’s hitting below the Mendoza line, and his defense certainly cost Halladay a couple of wins. Not surprisingly, Dobbs did not play in the perfect game. Were it not for all the injuries, he’d still be in AAA.
Outfielders
- Raul Ibanez: C-; This would be lower if he weren’t swinging the bat better lately and for the fact that people just like him. But .243, 7 HR and 39 RBI are just not enough for a guy who was an All-Star starter last year and has another year on a big money contract. Also said to be a second-half player, despite his post-injury struggles last year.
- Shane Victorino: C; More Gold Glove-worthy defense helps, but he’s Willie Mays Hayes at the plate this year. He’s muscled 14 homers, but is hitting just .250. He, like Rollins, needs to get on base more and wreak some havoc to pitchers’ minds on the basepaths.
- Jayson Werth: B; Think the pressure of impending free agency is affecting him? Oh, yeah. After a dreadful slump, he’s gotten his average back to .282. But if he hopes to break the century mark for RBI after getting 99 last year, he needs to pick up the pace a bit. I’d like to see him use his legs a little more, too.
- Ben Francisco: C; A serviceable back-up and defensive replacement. He just doesn’t get the ABs to get into the swing of things.
- Ross Gload: C-; Whatever.
Coaching: B-; Let’s be honest, Charlie Manuel and the coaching staff have overcome a lot and still have the team about where they were the last two years record wise, even if the Phillies are in third place instead of first. But where’s the running game? That’s the big thing that’s missing to me. Hopefully with guys getting healthy Charlie will be able to get a little consistency in the lineup and get thing going the way they have the last couple of years. Maybe Davey Lopes leaving the team for a while early in the season because of his brother’s death and Jimmy being hurt have been part of it? I don’t know. And frankly, I’m a little surprised Milt Thompson survived the month-long hitting slump. I think that was more a sign of a franchise trying not to panic. I don’t think there will be any changes the rest of the season, but I’d be a little surprised if Uncle Milt, a beloved member of the franchise, is back next season. By the way, here’s a prediction to file away: If Charlie Manuel is still Phillies manager when
Jim Thome retires, bet on Thome being the Phillies hitting coach a year later.
What if Phils had kept Lee?
For the third time in the last year, Cliff Lee was traded today. Last July he went from the Indians to the Phillies. The Phillies traded him in the off-season to the Mariners to restock the minors and clear salary space for Roy Halladay. And today the Mariners, who had the pitching they needed, but have struggled at the plate, gave up on 2010 and sent Lee to American West rival Texas.
While Lee changing uniforms again is hardly welcome news for Phillies fans, at least the lefty won’t be anywhere we’ll have to notice. He won’t be a Met, with a chance to face the Phillies several times the rest of the season. And he won’t be a Yankee, which just would have been a travesty and would have kept us from rooting for a guy we quickly grew to like last year.
But it’s interesting to think, what would have happened had Ruben Amaro taken a chance and paired Lee with Halladay at the top of the rotation. In the long run, would it have mattered? The rotation most likely would have been Halladay, Lee, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ. So what would have happened to Jamie Moyer, easily the Phillies biggest positive surprise this season? Would he have been released or traded? Would he have retired? Kyle Kendrick would have taken Blanton’s spot at the start of the season and then Happ’s spot when he went to the DL. Halladay has proven even the best of pitchers can’t always win if the offense doesn’t score. Perhaps Lee would have allowed the Phillies to win a couple more games where they only scored one or two runs. It’s more likely they would’ve wasted a few fine efforts by him. So in the end, would he have won the Phillies any more games than Moyer’s nine in the first half? I’m not so sure.
You might also make the argument that if Hamels wound up being the No. 3 starter, it might have hurt his fragile psyche even more than it already was last year. The fact of the matter is that while the Phillies, like every team, could certainly use better pitching, it’s the offense that has been the difference this year. Interestingly, after playing July 8, 2008, the Phillies were five games over .500 and 1.5 games in first. One year later, they six games over and two games up. This year they are four games over, so the record is not much different. What’s different is the way the other teams are playing. Last night’s win moved the Phillies to within 5.5 games of the first place Braves and three games back of the second place Mets.
It’s a game of inches, isn’t it?
Injury bug officially bites Utley
Whatever Chase Utley did to his thumb sliding into second in Cincinnati last night must have been pretty significant. It landed the man who’s never hurt on the disabled list. Placido Polanco is also on the DL with a bum elbow. A lot of teams would love to have a roster made up of the guys the Phillies have sent to the doctor this season. In addition to Utley and Polanco, Jimmy Rollins, Brad Lidge, Joe Blanton, J.C. Romero, J.A. Happ, Ryan Madson,
Carlos Ruiz, Brian Schneider, Chad Durbin and Antonio Bastardo have spent time on the DL. Bastardo, Durbin, Happ, Madson and Ruiz are there now.
One of the things that helped the Phils the last couple of years is the fact that they’ve largely avoided injuries. Oh, sure, there have been trips to the DL, including some big names like Rollins, Utley, Lidge and Raul Ibanez. But they’ve rarely had multiple guys hurt at the same time, let alone three every day players, a starting pitcher and two regular relievers. (Bastardo started the season on the Major League roster because Romero and Lidge were hurt)
By my count, the Phillies Opening Day line-up (Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Ibanez, Shane Victorino and Ruiz) have played together six times this season. They won all four of games they played together in the first week of the season (two each against the Nats and Astros). Technically the lineup was together a fifth game that opening week, but Rollins was scratched before the first pitch of the home opener against Washington and went on the DL. When Rollins came back May 17, he batted third, while Greg Dobbs played in place of Polanco as the Phillies beat the Pirates 12-2. The next night Ben Francisco started to give Ibanez a night off, as the Phillies began their now epic slide. Rollins batted sixth and Ibanez seventh the following night in a loss to the Cubs. Next Werth and Ruiz got an afternoon off. Rollins finally returned to the lead-off spot to bring the group together for just the sixth time in the season and only the fifth in their Opening Day lineup spots. Of course, Rollins would hurt his leg again and head back to the DL as the Phillies would begin a stretch where they’d be shut out five times in eight games. When Rollins finally game back last week, it was the same day Ruiz wound up sidelined because of a concussion. Now it will be after the All-Star break at the earliest before the Phillies regulars are together again.
The starting rotation has never been together this year. Before Blanton could come back after starting the season on the DL, Happ went to the injured list allowing Kyle Kendrick to stay the whole season, even though he has probably pitched his way out of the rotation a couple times. Likewise, the Phillies bullpen has never been set. Eight days after Romero came back, the Phillies activated Lidge from the DL only to put Madson on the shelf the same day after he broke his toe kicking a chair after blowing a save in San Francisco.
Kendrick isn’t the only one who has gotten extra time because of injuries. Bastardo, Wilson Valdez, Dobbs and Nelson Figueroa have all been sent to the minors only to be brought back, often within days, if not the next day, because teammates got hurt. And let’s be honest, Ruben Amaro and his brain trust never planned on names like Mike Zagurski, Dane Sardinha and Brian Bocock being keys to a third straight trip to the World Series.
Amazingly, despite a month-long team-wide slump and all these injuries, the Phillies entered Tuesday night six games over .500 and 3.5 games behind the NL East leading Braves.
Let’s just hope everybody can get healthy in the next few weeks and the guys still playing stay healthy. If Rollins or Howard goes down with the other half of the infield already out, well, it might be time to make non-baseball-related plans for October.
Is Moyer All-Star, HOFer?
Jamie Moyer has been pitching pretty well of late, well, as long as you take away the worst performance of his career in that one-inning disaster at Fenway a few weeks back. Still, he’s pitched well enough to make that Boston massacre the anomaly in his game log. Charlie Manuel hinted last week that maybe Moyer is an All-Star. It’s an interesting discussion, and it’d be great to see Moyer, who last year made a two-year deal look like a bust, bounce back with an appearance in the mid-season classic, but I’m not sure his numbers make it. After today, he is 9-6, but he has a 4.30 ERA, though those nine ER in one inning in Boston account for much of it. I think it just comes down to what other pitchers Charlie has to put on the roster and if he can justify two Phillies pitchers on the All-Star staff. After all, doesn’t Roy Halladay have to go?
Another interesting question is whether Moyer is a Hall of Famer. Probably not, though today alone he made history twice. First of all, the home run he gave up to Vernon Wells was the 506th homer Moyer has allowed in his career passing Hall of Famer and Phillies legend Robin Roberts for the most in history. On a more positive note, he passed 4,000 career innings. Also, his next win ties him with Hall of Famer Jim Palmer at 268 and 35th most all-time. If he can win seven more, he would be in sole possession of 32nd place, having passed Palmer, Mike Mussina, Burleigh Grimes and Red Ruffing. Former Phil Jim Kaat, by the way, is in 31st place at 283, which is certainly out of reach this season. Of course, Moyer continues to surprise everyone, so don’t count him out yet.
Dobbs pinched out
Is anybody really surprised that the Phillies designated Greg Dobbs for assignment today to make room for Jimmy Rollins? If so, you’ve not been watching the same guy I have. I’ve been saying for weeks that when Rollins comes back Dobbs needs to be the odd man out. Let’s face it, the guy is around for spot starts and pinch-hitting, but he has exactly one more pinch hit than I do this season. He hasn’t fared much better in his starts. Just ask Roy Halladay about Dobbs’s defense at third base.
This move makes so much sense. Wilson Valdez and Juan Castro, for all their faults, are superior defensive players, who can play second, third and short. Dobbs plays outfield and first, too, when needed. The Phillies have several guys that can play those positions.
According to MLB.com Dobbs said if he clears waivers he will accept an assignment to AAA Lehigh Valley to work out his problems. It’s kind of a no-brainer, because if he refuses the assignment, he loses the rest of his $1.35 million salary. Of course, there are probably teams out there that would be interested in picking him up. Dobbs was to 2008 what Del Unser was to 1980. For that he will always have a place in the hearts of Phillies fans.
On another note, the Phillies still don’t have their full starting nine together. Just as Rollins come back, Carlos Ruiz goes on the DL. That means it will be at least a couple more weeks before they can finally get the whole band back together. (Knock on wood)
Phils take another Halladay from winning
At some point you have to think Roy Halladay has wondered if he could have had the same season with the Blue Jays. The Phillies ace lost his sixth game Sunday, two months earlier in the season than last year. The man has an ERA of 2.43, yet the Phillies are 8-7 in his starts.
Sure, he’s had some duds. He allowed five earned runs in a loss to the Giants (his first of the year) and six in losses to the Red Sox and Yankees. So what about the other losses? Two ER in a 2-1 loss to the Pirates (the game that started the Phillies offensive slide), 1 ER in a 2-0 loss to the Marlins and 3 ER in a 4-1 loss to the Twins today. He also gave up two earned with a no-decision in a 4-3 loss in 10 innings at Colorado. And don’t forget, the Phillies scored only an unearned run in Halladay’s perfect game at Florida.
Look at the numbers. In Halladay’s 15 starts, the Phillies have outscored opponents 56-45. That’s an average of 3.7-3.0 per game. That’s not great, especially when you consider 21 of those runs were scored in two games (an 11-1 Opening Day win in Washington and a 10-0 win a month later over the Mets). That inflates the team’s offense in Halladay’s eight wins, where they’ve outscored opponents 44-12 (an average of 5.5-1.5). Meanwhile, in his six losses, the Phils have been outscored 29-9. That’s an average of 4.8-1.5.
Here are some more interesting numbers: Halladay has allowed 36 runs this season, 31 earned. It may not seem like a big difference, but those five unearned runs are 13.8 percent of his total runs allowed. Those totals also show that the bullpen has allowed nine runs after he’s departed. Now consider the fact that he’s pitched an average of 7 2/3 innings per start, including five complete games.
It’s tough when you waste a good effort by a starter, and just about all the Phillies starters, especially in the last month, have been the victim, but when you’re wasting starts by someone the caliber of Halladay, it’s just a travesty. Even the 1972 Phillies knew that. That team averaged 3.2 runs/game en route to a 59-97 record. Yet Steve Carlton was able to go 27-10 in 41 starts that year with a 1.97 ERA and an incredible 30 complete games. The Phils scored two or fewer runs in 17 of Carlton’s starts that year. The team was 9-8 in those games. This year they are 3-4 when they score two or fewer in a Halladay start.
Back to the drawing board
It’s been nearly a year since I last updated this blog. As I recall, I stopped because the Phillies were struggling, and I thought it might help turn things around. They went on to the World Series. So let’s see if the opposite happens. After all, the Phillies can use all the help they can get.
struggles:
Blanton have worn out their usefulness. Dobbs cannot hit any more. He’s hitting .042 as a pinch-hitter, which is 59 out of 60 in the NL. Blanton
cannot pitch any more. His ERA is above 7.00. The next roster move MUST be to get rid of Dobbs. With
limited pitching options as it is, I guess Blanton stays, but a trip to the
bullpen might be needed.
not be the prototypical lead-off man, but I think the Phillies are drastically
missing his leadership during this slump. When you’ve been on the DL for all but
10 games, or whatever it is, you can’t walk up to a guy and call him out and
challenge him. The Phillies need that desperately right now inside the
clubhouse.
to be more of a leader. At some point the former Rookie of the Year and MVP
needs to be in people’s faces challenging them.
Roy Halladay starts. Ever. The Phillies have wasted several already. Thank
goodness for an unearned run, or he would’ve lost the perfect game in
extras.
against the Red Sox, so I’m gonna stay positive and say Friday night was a
bigger fluke than the CG against SD the start before.
be as good as we thought he was, even if that’s because of injury problems. I’m
not saying he’s not good, but his John Wayne tough-guy routine when he may need
rest seems to be limiting his potential.
shake-up, and I’m afraid Milt Thompson may have to be the sacrificial lamb. You
can’t fire the players, but something needs to happen soon to jumpstart the
team, and seeing as how a team with this kind of offensive talent should never
go through a slump of this magnitude and length, the only logical course, as
much as I love him, is to get rid of Uncle Milty.
wish Jayson Werth remains a Phillie, but I think a good argument against
resigning him to big bucks is that the Phillies have minor league prospects and
need to spend some money to build some bench depth. When Russ Gload starts at DH
for you, there’s a problem.
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